Risk Level
Predicted Probability of State-based Deadly Violence
Predicted probability of at least one fatality per location per month from deadly violence involving a government of a state.The map on the left shows where the ViEWS-ESCWA model predicts the risk of future state-based deadly violence to be concentrated.
State-based deadly violence refers to fatal intra- or interstate violence fought to seize (or keep) control over government or control over territory, where at least one of the parties involved is a government of a state. This includes attacks by armed groups and terrorist organisations against government targets, such as government and embassy buildings, military posts, government officials, soldiers, or police officers. It also includes military action such as airstrikes or other armed violence exercised by a government against another government or armed group. Civilian fatalities associated with actions against military targets are included. Fatalities in events exclusively involving civilians are not included.
Each grid cell in the map corresponds to an area of 0.5x0.5 decimal degrees, or approximately 55x55 km at the Equator.
About the project
Conflict prevention requires early warning, and the availability of rigorous, systematic, and high-quality early-warning systems that objectively assess the risk of political violence at a global scale is scarce. Currently, the UN system makes crucial decisions on early action, policy prioritization, and resource allocation to regions and countries using a mix of qualitative methodologies and frameworks, coupled with the strategic geopolitical interest of Member States.
