Risk Level

High Risk i


Medium Risk i


Low Risk i


Predicted Probability of State-based Deadly Violence

Probability of at least 1 fatality per grid cell per month
info Predicted probability of at least one fatality per location per month from deadly violence involving a government of a state.

The map on the left shows where the ViEWS-ESCWA model predicts the risk of future state-based deadly violence to be concentrated.

State-based deadly violence refers to fatal intra- or interstate violence fought to seize (or keep) control over government or control over territory, where at least one of the parties involved is a government of a state. This includes attacks by armed groups and terrorist organisations against government targets, such as government and embassy buildings, military posts, government officials, soldiers, or police officers. It also includes military action such as airstrikes or other armed violence exercised by a government against another government or armed group. Civilian fatalities associated with actions against military targets are included. Fatalities in events exclusively involving civilians are not included.

Each grid cell in the map corresponds to an area of 0.5x0.5 decimal degrees, or approximately 55x55 km at the Equator.

About the Project

Violence prevention requires early warning, however, the availability of rigorous, systematic, and high-quality early-warning systems, that objectively assess the risk of deadly violence at a global scale, is scarce. The Violence Early Warning System (ViEWS) model facilitates a quantification of the risk of state-based deadly violence arising from multiple drivers and can help identify the hot-spots of emergency that may lay ahead.

ViEWS Early Warning Arab Region
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